Monday, February 27, 2012

Chinese Commentaries on International Affairs (February 20-February 26)

Syria

As Syria was holding its national referendum, one Chinese commentary on the situation in Syria and China's role in the Syrian crisis came out. According to this article, what the West wants in Syria is not democracy but the end of Bashar al-Assad's regime, so that Iran's influence on Syria will be reduced. In other words, the West is trying to build up a new geopolitical layout in the Middle East. Thus, as the author contends, China should, together with Russia, support the Syrian referendum and the reform of Bashar's regime. The author also suggests that China should seriously reconsider its changing role in the international arena, because each card China plays will be carefully examined by the West. China can retreat at any point as the situation in Syria changes, but China needs to be aware of the costs.

However, some other Chinese experts believe that China does not have to follow Russia's position regarding the Syria problem. Zhu Wenhui, an expert and commentator from Hong Kong, pointed out that Russia has more strategic interests in Syria that China does, and that Putin might be using his tough stance on this problem to gain popularity domestically. Therefore, China should deal with this case based on its own interests and considerations instead of blindly following Russia.

Sino-Japanese Relations

Last week, Nagoya Mayor Takashi Kawamura denied the well-documented massacre of Chinese civilians by Japanese troops in 1937, which has provoked great anger and protests from the Chinese public. The city of Nanjing subsequently suspended its sister-city relations with Nagoya. “On the denial of the Nanjing massacre by the mayor of Nagoya, China has already expressed its solemn position and made a solemn complaint to the Japanese side,” foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei told a regular briefing. Qiu Yi, a Taiwanese political commentator, described the denial as "nonsense", and claimed that Chinese people from mainland China and Taiwan should condemn the Japanese mayor's absurd remarks together. An article on the website associated with Global Times cites the example of Willy Brandt, who kneeled before the martyrs monument in Warsaw when he was the Prime Minister of the Federal Republic of Germany in 1970, and argues that Japanese politicians should follow this example.

Chinese Foreign Policy

Wang Zaibang, an expert on international relations, believes that China does not have to deliberately pursue a tough stance when it deals with its foreign affairs as long as it rationally formulates its foreign policies. The rise of China per se is not a threat, but deliberate pursuit of tough foreign policies could be perceived as threatening. Nevertheless, he also points out that rationality does not mean weakness. Another expert, Li Daguang, suggests that China should actively promote diplomacy of alliance. According to him, the capability of forming an alliance with other countries is a marker of a country's soft power, while China's no-alliance policy, formulated in the 1950s-1960s due to the Sino-Soviet split, is not applicable to today's situation.



Sources:

"叙利亚问题已变味卷入其中的中国随时可后撤" (The Syrian situation is changing, China can retreat at any time)

"朱文晖:对叙利亚问题中国无需跟从俄罗斯" (Zhu Wenhui: China needs not to follow Russia on the Syrian issue)

"南京暂停与名古屋官方交往" (Nanjing suspended formal relations with Nagoya)

"邱毅:两岸中国人应同声谴责日市长荒谬言论" (Qiu Yi: Mainland China and Taiwan should join together to condemn the Japanese mayor's absurd remarks)

"专家:日本要让受害国感动有必要学德国下跪" (Expert: Japan should learn from Germany)

"专家:中国外交不必刻意追求强硬 理性足矣" (Expert: China's diplomacy does not have to deliberately pursue toughness, it is enough to be rational)

"李大光:时过境迁 中国应积极推进盟国外交" (Li Daguang: China should actively promote diplomacy of alliance)

Friday, February 24, 2012

Security Forces: What's happening now?

On February 9, 2012 the military police, civil police and firefighters in Rio de Janeiro declared a strike demanding a basic rate salary increase to R$3,500, or just over $2,000 USD. The civil police union ended up postponing the strike in order to stand by their primary commitment; to maintain security. The military police and firefighters continued to strike, however, despite the city-wide Carnaval celebrations that would certainly present security issues. The Secretary for the Civil Defense Department and fire brigade commander, Colonel Sérgio Simões, stated that 14,000 army troops and an additional 300 troops from the National Seucirity Force would be deployed to patrol the state and provide fire services. Recent news reports argue that the Brazilian public’s confidence in the police is greater now more than it ever has been, and that community members are increasingly feeling valued throughout society. This strike and lack of police surveillance make the newfound confidence sound like it might have just been the media’s spin on it (Croix).

Security policy analysts often suggest that Rio’s several police forces reform and unify into one large force. According to one public safety specialist, this is not a feasible option since each force has a specific function. Brazil’s Public Safety Secretary explains: “We inherited [the division between civil, investigative police and military, enforcement police] from the times of the [Portuguese] empire. You can’t decree things. Today, as Secretary, I think we’re still very far from having a police force with the whole cycle, from investigation to patrolling.”

There are around five hundred new police officers entering the force each month. The new officers are being trained under a new mentality, one which aims at de-emphasizing the importance of killing; one where police offers don’t feel naked without a rifle. As the curriculum changes and Rio’s favelas undergo their makeovers, one wonders if now would be the best time to transform the police forces into one, and if so, what this would look like? One thing is clear; in order to be effective, officials will need to maintain a constant community presence that is focused on prevention and respects human rights. The use of highly visible, forceful and ‘military style’ executions are becoming less and less popular (Michaels).

The UPPs (Pacifying Police Divisions) are squadrons of Brazilian officers occupying favelas using community-policing methods. The drug gangs and traffickers, who often have been in control of the favelas for over three decades, certainly feel the pressure on themselves and on their profits. Reflecting on the seriousness of the invasions, Beltrame stated (in somewhat war-like language), "We have taken from these people what was never taken from them before — their territory. They commit their barbarous acts, and they run for their hideouts, protected by weapons of war. It's important to arrest them, but it is more important to occupy their territory. Without seizing territory, there is no advance."

There have been 17 UPPs set up in 68 favelas, and crimes (such as murder and assault) in those communities are down significantly. To understand the implications of the UPPs will take a much deeper analysis, which will be addressed later on with the help of community (favela) level testimonies. However, it is clear that the policies for favela integration and restructuring must be long-term, and that they will require more than just community policing, and will need the support of international organizations and local NGOs.

Downie, Andrew. “Rio Finally Makes Headway Against its Drug Gangs.” Time Magazine. 11/26/2010.

Croiz, Sarah de Sainte. “Police Strike in Rio Begins Today: Daily” Rio Times. 2/10/2012.

Michaels, Julia. “Rio's top cop talks public safety policy, favela pacification program.” Latin America Monitor. 10/20/2011.

Sunday, February 19, 2012

Xi's Trip to the US and Other Commentaries

So far, China's Vice President Xi's US trip plays well on Chinese media. Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi summarizes Xi's visit to the US as a significant contribution to promoting mutual respect and building a win-win Sino-US cooperative partnership. According to Yang, first, Xi's trip has deepened important concensus on advancing the Sino-US partnership. Second, it helps to expand pragmatic mutually beneficial cooperations between the two sides in the economic realm. Third, Xi's visit has deepened the friendship between Chinese and American people as well as promoted regional cooperation. Fourth, it enhances the Sino-US communication on international affairs.

One point brought up by Xi that has been highlighted by Chinese media is that China hopes that the US respect China's core interests, including China's territorial integrity and sovereignty. Xi said that the true measurement of friendship is action instead of rhetoric and that China expects the US to support the "one-China" policy and act against the Taiwan and Tibet separatist movements. Speaking of human rights issues, Xi pointed out that it is natural that China and the US have different views on this issue, considering the two countries' different histories and cultures. But the two sides can continue communication to further improve the human rights conditions in both countries.

Xi also pointed out that the US needs to realize its own responsibility for the trade imbalance between China and the US. During the visit, Xi also met with U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Martin Dempsey, when Xi claimed that Sino-US military relations need to subordinate to broader cooperative Sino-US relations.

What has especially catched people's eyes in Xi's visit is its civil part. Some chinese commentators believe that Xi is attempting to build up favorable impressions on China among American people. Some experts call this kind of diplomacy "three-dimensional diplomacy", and claim that it helps to establish China's image as a "great nation".

A Chinese military scholar disputed a global research group's report on China's defense budget growth, saying the motivation of the report was to play up China's military threat. The IHS Jane's report said China's military budget will double by 2015, making it more than the rest of the Asia Pacific region's combined. Professor Ma Gang with the People's Liberation Army (PLA) National Defense University said the IHS Jane's report was sensational and lacked a rational and factual basis. "The facts have proved that China's military budget increase has gone up and down over the past years and will not always keep growing fast," Ma said.

Refuting one of last week's commentaries which supported the idea of G2, a new article this week claims that G2 is a very dangerous proposal. Jin Canrong, a scholar on international relations, believes that the objective of the "responsible China" theory, as opposed to the "China threat" theory, is to put China into the American mold and encourage China to cooperate with the US to maintain the current unipolar world order. He considers this theory both an opportunity and a challenge for China, because the proper limits for behaving like a "great nation" are very sensitive.


Sources:

"杨洁篪称习近平访美推进双方合作伙伴关系建设" (Yang Jiechi: Vice President Xi's US trip contributes to cooperative partnership)

"习近平:望美反对'台独''藏独'付之行动" (Xi Jinping: China expects US to act against Taiwan and Tibet separatist movements)

"习近平寄望美国:衡量朋友的标准是行动非语言" (Xi Jinping: the measurement of friendship is action instead of rhetoric)

"习近平:中美两军关系需服从于中美合作大局" (xi Jinping: Sino-US military relations need to subordinate to broader cooperative Sino-US relations)

"独家点评:习近平访美民间行程直指人心" (Arrangements of Xi's US trip aim at winning favorable impressions)

"吴旭:习近平访美“立体外交”树立大国形象" (Xi's visit to the US to establish a "great nation" image through three-dimensional diplomacy)

"西方机构妄测中国军费五年倍增意在渲染威胁" (Western research agency intends to play up China's military threat)

"G2中美共治论非常危险 要吸取德日崛起教训" (G2 is a very dangerous idea, China needs to learn the lessons from the rise of Germany and Japan)

Monday, February 13, 2012

Chinese Commentaries on International Affairs (February 6-February 12)

Sino-US Relations

In this week, four articles on Chinese state and regional media, including Global Times, Renmin Wang, Xinhua Wang, and Guangzhou Daily, presented two different Chinese views on Sino-US Relations and US's new military strategy.

One article holds that China might need to reconsider the idea of G2 (Group of Two), a proposed informal special relationship between the United States and China. The article indicates that a Sino-US split might result in disasterous global economic situation and might pose threats to global peace, considering China and US are the main motors of the world economy and global system. It contends that it will be impossible to resolve any of the global problems if the conflictive factors in Sino-US relations outweigns the cooperative ones. Therefore, the author suggests that both the Chinese and American academia should rethink about the proposal of G2.

Meanwhile, with regard to Vice President Xi Jinping's upcoming visit to the US, Chinese Foreign Ministry claims that this visit will be an important beginning of the communications between Sino-US high-level officials, preceding a series of other conferences and negotiations. The Foreign Ministry believes that such mechanism plays a positive role in the development of Sino-US relations. In particular, the Vice Chinese Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai emphasizes China and the US's shared responsibility of providing common goods for the Asia-Pacific region, as well as promoting the development and ensuring the stability of the region. This article maintains that the future of Sino-US relations is not a zero-sum game, and that it is entirely possible to reach a win-win situation.

By contrast, the other two articles are using a much less friendly tone. One article accuses the US of using its military exercises in the Asia-Pacific region to add pressure on other countries in the region, so that "Japanese people, Korean people, and people in other countries would think that when a war breaks out, only the US soldiers will be able to protect them." The article believes that it is through this kind of psychological warfare the US will be better capable of maintaining its status of global hegemon. It also suggests that the Cold War thinking is still a valuable asset for the US.

The last article commented on the new US military strategy. According to this article, the new US military strategy shows, on the one hand, that US had to adjust their military strategy due to its declining national strength in recent years, and on the other hand, that US is unwilling to give up its obstinate pursuit of hegemonism. Therefore, the article contends, the US is attempting to pull it self of the Middle East, while at the same time turning to targeting at its "potential rivals", which in fact advocate for peaceful development. Thus, the article comes to the conclusion that US's move in the Asia-Pacific region is bluster outwardly, fluster inwardly.

Iranian Crisis

In response to the West's criticism on China's veto on the UN Syria resolution, Vice Chinese Foreign Minister claims that China uses the veto right very cautiously and responsibly. He points out that the frequency that China uses its veto right is much lower than most of other states, but China will not hesitate to use it when necessary. According to him, China's vote will only be dependent on China's major principles and interests, not influenced by other states' choice. He also states that China has always believed that it is unlegitimate to use force in international affairs, or to interfere other states' domestic politics. He hopes that the international society will be able to cooperate on the Syria issue, maintaining peace and stability in the region. According to a Chinese expert, the US is not determined to launch a war against Iran, neither is the US capable of doing so. The expert believes that the Obama administration's move on the Iranian crisis is primarily about raising oil prices and controlling oil resources rather than about taking military actions.

The Tibet Issue

Recently, "the Tibet problem", an expression that has long ago been abandoned by official Chinese media, frequently appears on foreign media. One article on Global Times points out that the so-called "Tibet problem" actually refers to not only the Tibet Autonomous Region, but also parts of Sichuan, Qinghan, Gansu and Yunnan provinces, which in total constitutes one fourth of China's territory. The author compares the "Tibet problem" with the Kosovo, Afganistan and Syria issues, suggesting that there is a risk that it can be utilized by the US, so that the US will use force against China in the name of the UN. To avoid such a situation, the author suggests that Chinese scholars should avoid using the phrase "Tibet problem". On the other hand, China should firmly deny the existence of the "Tibet problem" when negotiating and communicating with foreign representatives.


Sources:

"专家:需再思G2 未来中美或可联合共撑大局" (Expert: China needs to reconsider G2, China and the US might be able to work together to maintain a good global order)

"外交部:中美有共同责任为亚太提供公共产品" (Foreign Ministry: China and the United States have a common responsibility of providing public goods for the Asia-Pacific)

"美军亚太军演磨刀霍霍 司马昭之心世人皆知" (The US ambition is completely revealed by its Asia-Pacific military exercises)

"评美新军事战略:囊中羞涩挖肉补疮还想逞能" (Commenting on the new U.S. military strategy: bluster outwardly,fluster inwardly)

"外交部副部长谈动用否决权:该出手时定出手" (Vice Foreign Minister on veto right: use it when necessary)

"专家:美对伊开战决心未下也无发动战争条件" (Expert: US is not determined to launch a war against Iran, neither is it capable of doing so)

"若西藏问题成立殃及我1/4领土 美或乘机开战" (The Tibet problem concerns one fourth of China's territory, US might take advantage of it)

Sunday, February 5, 2012

Chinese Commentaries on International Affairs (January 30-February 5)

Diaoyu Islands

January 29th the Japanese government took a new move by planning a series of name changes for 39 nameless islands, some of which are part of the disputed Diaoyu Islands. Chinese Foreign Ministry protested against this move the next day, but Japanese Foerign Minister rejected China's protest. Regarding the recent disputes between China and Japan on the Diaoyu Islands, one Japanese media published an article on February 3rd advocating that Japan should not succumb to Chinese pressure. January 17th People's Daily claimed that the attempt to name affiliated islands of the Diaoyu Islands is a blatant move to damage China's core interest. The Japanese media quoted this claim and pointed out that this is the first time China using the phrase "core interest" in regard to the Diaoyu Island disputes. The Japanese editorial said that the Japanese government's naming of these islands is legitimate and that the Japanese government should intensify surveillance of these islands.

Sino-Russian Relations

In response to Dai Xu's article mentioned in my last post, where Dai maintains that that China and Russia should form an alliance against the US, a new commentary claims that it is absolutely a mistake for China and Russia to form an alliance. First, this new article rejects the assertion that US's new defense strategy is completely targeting at China. Second, the author believes that Russia's protest against US's intention to attack Iran and Russia's move to sell arms to Syria are motivated primarily by economic concerns rather than geopolitical concerns. Third, the article holds that there is not evidence showing that Eurasia is considered as US's main battlefield. Fourth, the author worries that a Sino-Russian alliance will provoke a new Cold War. Finally, the author suggests that China should launch a long march into western Eurasia, while maintaining offensive defense on water in the east, so as to buy some time for China's modernization.

Russian media also responded to Chinese experts's suggestion of the formation of Sino-Russian alliance. However, the Russian side does not seem to be optimistic about the feasibility of this idea. In addition, Russian experts are vigilant about the perceived Chinese interests in exploring the North Pole area. They believe that China's interests are not limited to economic and expedition concnerns, but also include military considerations.

Arab Spring

After China vetoed the UN solution on Syria together with Russia, an editorial on Global Times applauded China's decision to use the right of veto on the UN Security Council as oppose to abstaining from voting, which China used to do a lot. The article also claims that veto of the solution has nothing to do with "Sino-Russian alliance", and that China voted completely independently, according to its own will, based on China's understanding of the situation in the Middle East.

During the Munich Security Conference, Chinese Deputy Foreign Minister Zhang Zhijun restated China's resolution to adhere to its path of peaceful development. He stated that international relations is not a zero-sum game, and that the rise of Asia is a sign of better balance among international powers. He claims that Asia is an open and tolerant area. Zhang also pointed out that "Arab Spring in China" is merely an illusin, because Chinese government is widely supported by Chinese people.


Sources:

"日媒不接受钓鱼岛为我核心利益提法鼓吹对抗" (Japanese media reject the claim that Diaoyu Islands are part of China's core interests)

"中国要量力而行:中俄建立同盟绝对是个错误" (It will be a mistake for China and Russia to form an alliance)

"俄方回应中俄结盟建议:虽诱人却全无可行性" (Russia responds to the Sino-Russian alliance suggestion: appealing but not feasible)

"俄媒称中国将北极视为重要军事战略利益地区" (Russian media says China sees North Pole as critical military strategic area)

"为投反对票鼓掌!国人已经厌倦'弃权大国'” (Applaud for veto! Chinese tired of "great power of abstention")

"外交部副部长:'中国出现阿拉伯之春'是幻想" (Deputy Foreign Minister: "Arab Spring in China" is an llusion)

Thursday, February 2, 2012

A Comparative Look at Goals and Security Systems

Mega-events are not only reporting on sports, but they are providing the world with coverage of the host country. In the 2008 Beijing Olympics, the government saw it as an opportunity to legitimatize the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and depict itself as a modernized society. In the 2010 South Africa World Cup, the government would saw it as an opportunity to legitimize itself by showing that Africa can manage large and complicated projects and is ready to be a player in the global economy. Brazil, however, has already been legitimized as an economic and political power. As one of the few countries in the world to have a female president, the events offer Brazil the opportunity to solidify its role as a major global political and economic influence. Security will be the biggest barrier to this.

The post 9/11 panic mentality in the international community has generated high international security concerns for any mega-event. Western security systems and US corporations play a large role in these issues. The mega-events have created global security market for new monitoring technologies, a market that the US is actively involved in. Some fear that the ‘Olympic spirit’ has been replaced by greedy private businesses, and that these events have become testing-grounds for new security systems where the main corporate players benefit.

The Athens games in 2004 accepted direct US and international assistance. The American Science Application International Corporation (SAIC) helped to implement the C41 security system, and linked to a central command center that integrates all security forces and information. The command center crashed and became a technical nightmare. The flawed system remained useless. SAIC, which has close relationships with the Pentagon, had promoted the use of the C14 system for the Athens Olympics. Although the system crashed, Athens was still able to convey a perceived sense of security during the events. Visible airborne surveillance, although a controversial spectacle, offered comfort for all of the Olympic participants. It also kept any potential security threats ignorant of the system malfunctions.

More and more, cities are looking to the citizens for assistance. A special 100,000 person anti-terrorist force was organized for the China’s games in 2008. The force was backed by 400,000 city volunteers. The volunteer group was made up of taxi drivers, receptionists, and other members of the public. Because of this system, the Chinese forces had people reporting on every level. Security was linked with patriotism, and citizens took any potential threats to Chinese security personally. Vancouver and London have also promoted public awareness, and encouraged citizens on all levels to report suspicious behavior.

Electronic surveillance systems help track, target and profile suspects, control population, watch traffic and monitor electronic communication. Brazil will have the decision which system to implement and which countries to involve in the decision. Brazil security officials need to seek help and volunteers on every level, and make security concerns relevant to all people in Brazil. Make the public active participants in the security issues. The public might be able to identify security gaps that officials missed.

“Surveillance in Athens 2004 and Beijing 2008: A Comparison of the Olympic Surveillance Modalities and Legacies in Two Different Olympic Host Regimes.” Samatas, Minas. Oct. 24, 2011.

“Before and After the Vuvuzela: Identity, Image and Mega-Events in South Africa, China and Brazil.” Tomlinson, Richard. South African Geographical Journal. May 16, 2011.