Chinese Commentaries on International Affairs (January 23-29)

Eurasia

Dai Xu, a researcher at Peking University's China Center for Strategic Studies, maintains in his latest commentary that China and Russia should form an alliance against the US, when the US is attempting to implement its divide-and-conquer strategy to achieve global hegemony. According to him, on US's strategic chessboard, Eurasia is the main battlefield, which has been increasingly divided and surrounded by US and US-led powers. He believes that China and Russia will be US's ultimate strategic targets. Therefore, as stakeholders on the same side, China and Russia should take up the responsibility of maintaining world peace, and form an alliance to resist US's imperial ambitions.

Asia-Pacific Region

A commentary on Global Times warns the Philippines about becoming a little chessman on US's strategic layout in the Asia-Pacific Region. The article maintains that since US is actively developing its strategic alliances surrounding China, it is necessary for China to pick up one of the outstanding points, such as the Philippines, to send warning and even carry out punishment. To be specific, China should consider effectively yet reservedly imposing sanctions on the Philippines, so that the whole South China Sea area will see that it is not a good idea to choose the US over China in this rivalry.

Iran

As the Iranian oil crisis escalates, China will get involved sooner or later, and thus has to be prepared to clarify its stance: to withdraw and be subject to the US's strategic layout or to step forward to face the direct frictions with the West. Traditionally, China tends to avoid direct contradictions with the US and Europe. However, since 10% of China's oil import comes from Iran, it is impossible for China to remain an outsider this time. In current situation, China should promotes coordination with East and South Asian countires, aiming at forming a temporary alliance that continues to purchase oil from Iran. The Iran conflict provides an opportunity for China to be more courageous and assertive on the international stage. China should establish a self-confidence: as long as we play by our own script, we will not lose too much. To act more proactively now on the Iran issue is to reduce the pressure for future.

Davos Forum and Capitalism

As reported by Chinese media, one of the most important issues discussed on the Davos Forum is the flaw of the Western economic growth model and the substantial limitations of the capitalist system. The increasingly widening gap between the rich and the poor and sustaining poor economic performance across the West are considered as two key symptoms of today's capitalism. This article contends that contemporary capitalism lacks morality, and that interest groups are becoming unprecedentedly dominant in the capitalist world. Despite Americans differ in whether capitalism is inherently defective or it is merely having some bugs, a consensus has been reached that capitalism is really sick now.

Sources:

"美正分割包围征服世界 中俄应联手阻美屠戮" (China and Russia should form an ally against the US imperialism)

http://mil.huanqiu.com/Observation/2012-01/2386669.html

"枪打出头鸟惩罚菲律宾！拉美制华者须付代价" (Philippines should get punished for act against China with US's backing)

http://mil.huanqiu.com/Observation/2012-01/2386429.html

"美或激进力阻中国从伊朗购油 摊牌无法回避" (US might block China's oil purchase from Iran, China might not be able to avoid a showdown)

http://mil.huanqiu.com/Observation/2012-01/2389354.html

"资本主义真病了" (Capitalism is really sick)

http://world.people.com.cn/GB/16967807.html

Chinese Commentaries on International Affairs (January 16-22)

Recently, most Chinese commentaries on Chinese foreign policy and international affairs have been focusing on the US hegemony and its suspected intention to curb China's growing regional and global influence. Concerns over the US's intentions have been first raised by the US's new defence strategy "Sustaining US Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense", presented by Barack Obama on January 5 at the Pentagon, and then have been intensified by the announcement of the plan of the US-Philippine combat drills near South China Sea waters.

US Defense Strategy

According to one analytical article written by People's Liberation Army Major General Luo Yuan, the US's movement towards the Asia-Pacific region has four objectives. First, to sustain US's global leadership, not allowing any confronting power in the Asia-Pacific region. Second, to take advantage of the fast-growing economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region to solve domestic economic problems. Third, to provoke conflicts in the Asia-Pacific region, and to create alliance using these conflicts. Fourth, to adjust its strategic layout in the region to contain China's rise. The Major General holds that the seemingly affensiveness in US's new strategy is substantially defensive due to three reasons. First, this strategic adjustment is a belated continuation of US's earlier strategy, which has been delayed by the event of 911. Second, this adjustment is a passive move during the US's economic downturn. Third, this adjustment is actually a strategic contraction after the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. Luo suggests that the key for China to deal with the shift of US's strategic center is to remain alert and calm. He believes that as long as China remains prosperous and militarily strong, US will not be a threat to China's development. But he also points out that it is a false that US identifies China as a threat, because China's development in its military sector is only motivated by normal self-defense considerations.

Another commentary as a response to US's new defense strategy carries with strong nationalistic features. This commentary accuses US's movement towards the Asia-Pacific region and its targeted attack on China as posing threats to the region's peace and stability. It refers to the tributary system, which had existed for a long time when the Chinese empire was the one of the strongest countries in the world, claiming that "Beijing will never forget" about its glorious past and that China has once more become strong. Therefore, according to the article, the surrounding countries have to admit China's coming back as a strong regional and global power and respect China's national interests.

US-Philippine Combat Drills

On a Chinese TV program, four experts expressed their perception of the planned US-Philippine combat drills near disputed South China Sea waters. According to the experts, this time the location of the US-Philippine drills is closer to the disputed waters between China and Philippine than that of the previous drills, which indicates that this time the drills will be targeting more at China. The experts consider the US-Philippine cooperation meets the needs of both sides and shows their mutual obligation as a securty alliance. In addition, based on the fact that the drills will be held on oil rigs near Malampaya, site of Philippine's largest natural gas field, the experts believe that US and Philippine will put more emphasis on offshore energy security, making South China Sea oil and gas a more salient factor. With regard to Philippine's statement that the drills are not targeting at China, the experts say that US has always been using Philippine as an arsonist in the region so that US can step in with legitimate reasons and exagerrate China's threat. The experts suggest that Chinese government should fight back diplomatically, but the drills have yet to threaten China's very security.

Iran

As the Iran crisis intensifies, China and Russia's consistent positions against the US have become more salient. One commentary produced by Global Times contends that the US is ridicuously addicted to war, and is using its power without restraints. The article warns that if the US continues this kind of foreign policy (from Afganistan to Iraq to Iran), sooner or later China and Russia will form an alliance against the US, which could bring about serious consequences that will be out of US's control.

Afghanistan

During an interview conducted this week, Yang Shu, a professor specializing in Central Asia and Anti-terrorism at Lanzhou University, gave his prediction on the 2012 security situation in Afghanistan. According to him, there are four major potential threats to the stability in Afghanistan. First, the pullout of US military will leave the country's stability in the hands of poorly-trained Afghan security troops, within which corruption is rampant. Second, Taliban still preserves certain power. Third, local warlordism is persistent in Afghanistan. Fourth, the drug problem. Professor Yang states that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization should serve as the cornerstone maintaining stability in the region.

Sources:

"少将：只要中国保持强大繁荣 美国就会惧怕" (Major General: As long as China remains strong and prosperous, the US will only fear)

http://mil.huanqiu.com/Observation/2012-01/2367834.html

"周边须承认中国再度强盛 即使不恢复朝贡体系" (Surrouding countries have to admit China is strong again now, even if the tributary system does not have to be resurrected)

http://mil.huanqiu.com/Observation/2012-01/2374802.html

"美菲军演靠近南海暗藏玄机 美重返亚太力度显现" (US-Philippine military exercises will be near the South China Sea, US intensifies its return to the Asia-Pacific)

http://world.huanqiu.com/roll/2012-01/2376429.html

"美患安全癖频繁动武迟早逼中俄结盟绝地反击" (The US addicted to wars, forcing the formation of a Sino-Russian alliance)

http://mil.huanqiu.com/Observation/2012-01/2377441.html

"恐怖势力难在中亚掀起大风浪" (Terrorist power is not strong in Central Asia)

http://roll.sohu.com/20120118/n332517986.shtml

Brazil's Unique Situation

Brazil is looking forward to the 'kick-start' that the upcoming mega-events are expected to give to its economy and development. This will not come without a cost though, and large investments are being made into Brazil's infrastructure and stadia.

The map on the left shows the 12 different locations of the host cities for the 2014 FIFA World Cup. Each stadium is supposed to host between 40,000-60,000 guests.

Rio de Janeiro will also serve as the site of the 2016 Summer Olympics.

The most recent mega-events hosted in Brazil include the 1950 World Cup, the 1963 Pan-American Games and the 2007 Pan-American Games. The 2007 games were hosted in Rio, and sold 1.3 million tickets. These games were intended to be used as propaganda to secure Brazil as the host of the upcoming World Cup and Olympics. The propaganda worked.

The two principle economic reasons for hosting mega-events are economic development and a positive image in the media. As a result of hosting a mega-event, Brazil will automatically be the center of international media attention. Through positive media coverage, Brazil has the potential to dramatically increase tourism revenues.

The public budget and tax dollars used for the 2007 games were justified to Brazilians by the potential long-term economic benefits. Audience Characteristics of the 2007 games were somewhat surprising. 55% of the attending audience was between the ages of 10 and 29. Of the overwhelmingly young audience, 50% of all attendees bought their tickets online. Only 20% of the audience was from Rio, and only 3.9% was foreign tourists. Considering the high numbers of tickets purchased electronically, it would be beneficial to provide as much information as possible online before the events.

The unique situation in Rio presents many security challenges. The rich and poor live literally side by side. In order to feel comfortable, the rich often exclude the poor or block them from interfering with their lives. The social exclusion has lead to prevalent discrimination against people living in a favela (slum). Favelas are inter-mixed geographically with prosperous neighborhoods and are historically controlled by drug dealers.

Favelas are a huge component of Brazil's pop culture and they are participating more and more in local commerce activities. Store owners and transportation workers in the favelas are taxed by unofficial 'leaders.' Tourism is starting to bring in new opportunities for the 'favelados' (residents of the favelas). Many tourists make it a priority to visit the infamous favelas, despite safety concerns.

Security Measures to Consider

1. Crowd Management-This force pays special attention to organization, offers service and assistance to audience members, constitutes a low-level of policing. In the past, crowd management officers were not dressed as typical police force members. They intentionally appeared less aggressive.
For the 2007 Gemes, a large portion of these positions were filled by volunteers. The volunteers handed out guides (stadium maps, public transport, etc.) and spoke over megaphones.

A security concern of this would be the credibility of volunteers as a security force, even
for low-level policing.

2. Hotel and Restaurant Security
3. Transportation Security

Social Issues brought on by hosting mega-events

1. Interference with Public Space
The proposed destruction of the Parque de Flamengo in Marina de Gloria for the 2007 Games is one of the most well-known interferences. A famous panarama of the city was to be destroyed. The project was susbended due to threats from society.

2.Property Issues
Many of the homes surrounding the stadium are to be expropriated to allow for stadium development. For those properties that aren't taken over, prices are expected to rise making them unaffordable for many. Residents will be going through a 'redistribution' of location.

3.Promises not kept
Two new subway lines were promised for the 2007 Games and they were never built. The public was also promised access to use the stadiums after the events, however they were rarely used after the event. Sports are considered a 'luxury good' and the demand for stadium use was very low.

The mega-events and new policies are often seen as being used for city marketing, not for actually solving daily social problems of urban life. Previous investments tended to go toward already socially privileged areas, and avoided the areas that need help the most. The social issues have the potential to cause an unsupportive Brazilian public and a negative reaction to the authoritarianism.

Sources:

"FIFA World Cup Brazil." Destination. http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/destination/cities/index.html

"Metamorphosis of Marginality in Rio." Perlman, Janice

“Pan-American Games in Rio in 2007.” Curi, Knijnik,
Mascarenhas. International Review for the Sociology of Sport.

"Predicting the Costs and Benefits of Major Sporting Events." Barday, Jonathon