Recently, most Chinese commentaries on Chinese foreign policy and international affairs have been focusing on the US hegemony and its suspected intention to curb China's growing regional and global influence. Concerns over the US's intentions have been first raised by the US's new defence strategy "Sustaining US Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense", presented by Barack Obama on January 5 at the Pentagon, and then have been intensified by the announcement of the plan of the US-Philippine combat drills near South China Sea waters.
US Defense Strategy
According to one analytical article written by People's Liberation Army Major General Luo Yuan, the US's movement towards the Asia-Pacific region has four objectives. First, to sustain US's global leadership, not allowing any confronting power in the Asia-Pacific region. Second, to take advantage of the fast-growing economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region to solve domestic economic problems. Third, to provoke conflicts in the Asia-Pacific region, and to create alliance using these conflicts. Fourth, to adjust its strategic layout in the region to contain China's rise. The Major General holds that the seemingly affensiveness in US's new strategy is substantially defensive due to three reasons. First, this strategic adjustment is a belated continuation of US's earlier strategy, which has been delayed by the event of 911. Second, this adjustment is a passive move during the US's economic downturn. Third, this adjustment is actually a strategic contraction after the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. Luo suggests that the key for China to deal with the shift of US's strategic center is to remain alert and calm. He believes that as long as China remains prosperous and militarily strong, US will not be a threat to China's development. But he also points out that it is a false that US identifies China as a threat, because China's development in its military sector is only motivated by normal self-defense considerations.
Another commentary as a response to US's new defense strategy carries with strong nationalistic features. This commentary accuses US's movement towards the Asia-Pacific region and its targeted attack on China as posing threats to the region's peace and stability. It refers to the tributary system, which had existed for a long time when the Chinese empire was the one of the strongest countries in the world, claiming that "Beijing will never forget" about its glorious past and that China has once more become strong. Therefore, according to the article, the surrounding countries have to admit China's coming back as a strong regional and global power and respect China's national interests.
US-Philippine Combat Drills
On a Chinese TV program, four experts expressed their perception of the planned US-Philippine combat drills near disputed South China Sea waters. According to the experts, this time the location of the US-Philippine drills is closer to the disputed waters between China and Philippine than that of the previous drills, which indicates that this time the drills will be targeting more at China. The experts consider the US-Philippine cooperation meets the needs of both sides and shows their mutual obligation as a securty alliance. In addition, based on the fact that the drills will be held on oil rigs near Malampaya, site of Philippine's largest natural gas field, the experts believe that US and Philippine will put more emphasis on offshore energy security, making South China Sea oil and gas a more salient factor. With regard to Philippine's statement that the drills are not targeting at China, the experts say that US has always been using Philippine as an arsonist in the region so that US can step in with legitimate reasons and exagerrate China's threat. The experts suggest that Chinese government should fight back diplomatically, but the drills have yet to threaten China's very security.
Iran
As the Iran crisis intensifies, China and Russia's consistent positions against the US have become more salient. One commentary produced by Global Times contends that the US is ridicuously addicted to war, and is using its power without restraints. The article warns that if the US continues this kind of foreign policy (from Afganistan to Iraq to Iran), sooner or later China and Russia will form an alliance against the US, which could bring about serious consequences that will be out of US's control.
Afghanistan
During an interview conducted this week, Yang Shu, a professor specializing in Central Asia and Anti-terrorism at Lanzhou University, gave his prediction on the 2012 security situation in Afghanistan. According to him, there are four major potential threats to the stability in Afghanistan. First, the pullout of US military will leave the country's stability in the hands of poorly-trained Afghan security troops, within which corruption is rampant. Second, Taliban still preserves certain power. Third, local warlordism is persistent in Afghanistan. Fourth, the drug problem. Professor Yang states that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization should serve as the cornerstone maintaining stability in the region.
Sources:
"少将：只要中国保持强大繁荣 美国就会惧怕" (Major General: As long as China remains strong and prosperous, the US will only fear)
"周边须承认中国再度强盛 即使不恢复朝贡体系" (Surrouding countries have to admit China is strong again now, even if the tributary system does not have to be resurrected)
"美菲军演靠近南海暗藏玄机 美重返亚太力度显现" (US-Philippine military exercises will be near the South China Sea, US intensifies its return to the Asia-Pacific)
"美患安全癖频繁动武迟早逼中俄结盟绝地反击" (The US addicted to wars, forcing the formation of a Sino-Russian alliance)
"恐怖势力难在中亚掀起大风浪" (Terrorist power is not strong in Central Asia)
Nice post. I read a recent analysis which postulated the the shift in US strategy is largely based on the current global economic situation (i.e. the US highly indebted to China). I'm sure it is more complex that that, but if you have a free hour, please listen to the lecture at the link below.
ReplyDeletehttp://www2.lse.ac.uk/newsAndMedia/videoAndAudio/channels/publicLecturesAndEvents/player.aspx?id=1311