George Lakoff’s work
in framing, narrative and conceptual metaphor shows that cognitive
elements interact to affect the way we perceive important events and the
powerful effect they have in shaping public attitudes. Chess is often
used as a metaphor for the game of realpolitik or politics in general.
One of the important things about chess analysis is that we do not need
to peer inside the heads of grandmasters in order to observe positions
and outcomes. If we view the Middle East as a chess match, we need no
knowledge of inner thoughts and secret motivations of players in order
to analyze and assess the position and pieces which are publicly visible
on the geopolitical chessboard.
In today's news, Egypt’s Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood have secured $250 million dollars worth of economic aid from newly appointed Secretary of State John Kerry in his inaugural visit to Cairo (See Taylor, Guy). In addition to the $1.3 billion in military aid the United States provides Egypt every year, a further $1 billion in U.S. assistance was set to begin flowing upon Egypt meeting conditions to close on a $4.8 billion loan package from the International Monetary Fund. Further, Secretary Kerry cited another $60 million dollars that would be presented to Egypt to “direct support of key engines of democratic change, including Egypt’s entrepreneurs and its young people” that would climb to $300 million over time (See Taylor, Guy).
This financial assistance is particularly notable given the growing furor of debate within Congress regarding U.S. dollars being spent to assist an Islamist government, as well as the bleak outlook Senator McCain presented after a January 16 meeting with President Morsi. The Senator expressed grave concerns over the Egyptian President’s 2010 statements that criticized Israeli policies towards Palestinians and described Zionists as “bloodsuckers who attack…these warmongers, the descendants of apes and pigs” (See Kirkpatrick, David). Despite these issues, it is clear that a lasting partnership has been forged between the U.S. and the Muslim Brotherhood run Egyptian government. President Morsi seems to have become an ally of America, an event that up until this point seemed unlikely.
A chess match has an opening, a middle game and an endgame. If we consider the opening of this game to have been the Arab Spring, what we are looking at on the chessboard now are the resulting structural changes, what the Project for the New American Century referred to as “regime changes to restructure power in the Middle East” (See “Project for a New…”). We need not measure the extent to which great power chess moves and pent-up societal forces of modernity were the cause of the Arab Spring in order to understand that the positions of the players in the Middle East have changed. A restructuring has occurred. The Arab Spring opening set the scene for the tactically complex middle game which is the chessboard we now see before our eyes.
The middle game is where the great struggle usually occurs. The overthrow of the regimes in Libya, Egypt, the disintegration of the Assad regime in Syria, the crackdowns on potential revolution in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain along with political jockeying by new and old regimes to maintain stability, unrest among the Kurds and in Iraq, and a chaotic environment in North Africa are what characterize this struggle's middle game. Egypt’s political middle game witnessed the ascent of the Muslim Brotherhood into governmental power through a series of elections, the fragmentation of the liberal democratic opposition along with its partial reformation under the banner of the National Salvation Front and the continuing Brotherhoodization of the state and national media. With the cementing of a strategic partnership between the U.S. and the Muslim Brotherhood, we are arriving at the end of the middle game and into the endgame.
Going into the endgame, a major risk facing the West seems to be "winning the war but losing the peace." The United States and its allies find themselves in a very favorable position in the Great Game of Middle Eastern geopolitics. For the United States, Egypt is the linchpin of the Middle East and is arguably the most important country in terms of population, geographic position, possession of the Suez Canal and its historical role as leader of the Arab Nation. The creation of what appears to be a comprehensive understanding with the Muslim Brotherhood is clearly a major foreign policy turning point and huge achievement for the United States. Whether this was in the mind of the grandmaster from the beginning or whether it was an opportunistic tactic brilliantly consummated...we cannot know, but the result is clearly visible. However, the game is not yet over. It is always possible that some event, some brilliant (or otherwise) play may change the game and the outcome. Mikhael Tal, a brilliant erratic Russian grandmaster had an unexpected and unpredictable streak where for a short time he played brilliantly and won -- for a short time -- the world championship. There are grandmaster adversaries on the opposite side of the chessboard, such as Hassan Nasrallah (Hizbollah), Ayahtollah Khameini, and of course Putin and the new Chinese leadership, and other players such as Assad, who so far have refused to concede the game and who should never be underestimated. Other unpredictable factors are social and economic unrest which may result in an angry and frustrated Egyptian public rising up once again in protest, against the new rulers of Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood. The situation in Egypt is volatile and there are many unpredictable factors. The U.S. should heed the words of Emanuel Lasker, the longest reigning world chess champion, who famously said "The hardest game to win is a won game".
Sources:
Kirkpatrick, David (January 16, 2013). "Morsi Says His Slurs of Jews Were Taken Out Of Context." New York Times. Retrieved March 4, 2013, from: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/17/world/middleeast/egypts-morsi-says-slurs-of-jews-were-taken-out-of-context.html?_r=0
“Project For A New American Century.” (N.D.) Wikipedia. Retrieved March 3, 2013, from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_for_the_New_American_Century
Taylor, Guy (March 3, 2013). “Release of $250 million to Muslim-Led Egypt Stokes Debate” Washington Times. Retrieved March 4, 2013, from: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/mar/3/kerry-presses-egyptian-president-morsi-military-re/?page=all#pagebreak
In today's news, Egypt’s Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood have secured $250 million dollars worth of economic aid from newly appointed Secretary of State John Kerry in his inaugural visit to Cairo (See Taylor, Guy). In addition to the $1.3 billion in military aid the United States provides Egypt every year, a further $1 billion in U.S. assistance was set to begin flowing upon Egypt meeting conditions to close on a $4.8 billion loan package from the International Monetary Fund. Further, Secretary Kerry cited another $60 million dollars that would be presented to Egypt to “direct support of key engines of democratic change, including Egypt’s entrepreneurs and its young people” that would climb to $300 million over time (See Taylor, Guy).
This financial assistance is particularly notable given the growing furor of debate within Congress regarding U.S. dollars being spent to assist an Islamist government, as well as the bleak outlook Senator McCain presented after a January 16 meeting with President Morsi. The Senator expressed grave concerns over the Egyptian President’s 2010 statements that criticized Israeli policies towards Palestinians and described Zionists as “bloodsuckers who attack…these warmongers, the descendants of apes and pigs” (See Kirkpatrick, David). Despite these issues, it is clear that a lasting partnership has been forged between the U.S. and the Muslim Brotherhood run Egyptian government. President Morsi seems to have become an ally of America, an event that up until this point seemed unlikely.
A chess match has an opening, a middle game and an endgame. If we consider the opening of this game to have been the Arab Spring, what we are looking at on the chessboard now are the resulting structural changes, what the Project for the New American Century referred to as “regime changes to restructure power in the Middle East” (See “Project for a New…”). We need not measure the extent to which great power chess moves and pent-up societal forces of modernity were the cause of the Arab Spring in order to understand that the positions of the players in the Middle East have changed. A restructuring has occurred. The Arab Spring opening set the scene for the tactically complex middle game which is the chessboard we now see before our eyes.
The middle game is where the great struggle usually occurs. The overthrow of the regimes in Libya, Egypt, the disintegration of the Assad regime in Syria, the crackdowns on potential revolution in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain along with political jockeying by new and old regimes to maintain stability, unrest among the Kurds and in Iraq, and a chaotic environment in North Africa are what characterize this struggle's middle game. Egypt’s political middle game witnessed the ascent of the Muslim Brotherhood into governmental power through a series of elections, the fragmentation of the liberal democratic opposition along with its partial reformation under the banner of the National Salvation Front and the continuing Brotherhoodization of the state and national media. With the cementing of a strategic partnership between the U.S. and the Muslim Brotherhood, we are arriving at the end of the middle game and into the endgame.
Going into the endgame, a major risk facing the West seems to be "winning the war but losing the peace." The United States and its allies find themselves in a very favorable position in the Great Game of Middle Eastern geopolitics. For the United States, Egypt is the linchpin of the Middle East and is arguably the most important country in terms of population, geographic position, possession of the Suez Canal and its historical role as leader of the Arab Nation. The creation of what appears to be a comprehensive understanding with the Muslim Brotherhood is clearly a major foreign policy turning point and huge achievement for the United States. Whether this was in the mind of the grandmaster from the beginning or whether it was an opportunistic tactic brilliantly consummated...we cannot know, but the result is clearly visible. However, the game is not yet over. It is always possible that some event, some brilliant (or otherwise) play may change the game and the outcome. Mikhael Tal, a brilliant erratic Russian grandmaster had an unexpected and unpredictable streak where for a short time he played brilliantly and won -- for a short time -- the world championship. There are grandmaster adversaries on the opposite side of the chessboard, such as Hassan Nasrallah (Hizbollah), Ayahtollah Khameini, and of course Putin and the new Chinese leadership, and other players such as Assad, who so far have refused to concede the game and who should never be underestimated. Other unpredictable factors are social and economic unrest which may result in an angry and frustrated Egyptian public rising up once again in protest, against the new rulers of Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood. The situation in Egypt is volatile and there are many unpredictable factors. The U.S. should heed the words of Emanuel Lasker, the longest reigning world chess champion, who famously said "The hardest game to win is a won game".
Sources:
Kirkpatrick, David (January 16, 2013). "Morsi Says His Slurs of Jews Were Taken Out Of Context." New York Times. Retrieved March 4, 2013, from: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/17/world/middleeast/egypts-morsi-says-slurs-of-jews-were-taken-out-of-context.html?_r=0
“Project For A New American Century.” (N.D.) Wikipedia. Retrieved March 3, 2013, from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_for_the_New_American_Century
Taylor, Guy (March 3, 2013). “Release of $250 million to Muslim-Led Egypt Stokes Debate” Washington Times. Retrieved March 4, 2013, from: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/mar/3/kerry-presses-egyptian-president-morsi-military-re/?page=all#pagebreak
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