Political Transitions in Africa

 

On August 20, 2012 Ethiopia’s long standing leader, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi died.   The ensuing days were marked by a calm and peaceful transfer of power by the ruling party, the Ethiopian People’s Revolution Democratic Front (EPRDF), to acting Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn.  Speculation exists that the demise of Meles Zenawai may potentially lead to instability in Ethiopia as well as the region as a power struggle is underway beyond the public’s view.  The EPRDF dismisses these claims and resolutely contends that the transition to the new prime minister has fully occurred.  The EPRDF also offers assurances that Ethiopia’s foreign policy position will remain unchanged.  This is significant as Ethiopia is a central actor in the new African Union whose roles and ambitions in Africa are enormous.  The ability of the EPRDF to transfer power quietly, quickly, and without violence to Meles Zenawi’s predecessor provides a positive forecast for Ethiopia, the region, and the African Union.  

Similarly, the long standing democratic state of Ghana also lost President John Atta Mills on July 24, 2012.  Ghana had been praised by the United States for representing hope in Africa.  Mills in particular had been credited with “consolidating democracy in Ghana and being crucial in establishing the political party system in Ghana.”  Immediately following Mills’ death and with little fanfare, Vice President John Dramani Mahama assumed the presidency. Interestingly and in contrast to Ethiopia’s interim political leader, Mahama will only serve as president until the regularly scheduled presidential elections are held in December 2012.  The rapid assumption of office by the Vice President as well as the December elections is indicative of Ghana’s steadfast adherence to its 1992 constitutional requirements.  Elections Chief, Kwadwo Afar-Gyan, stated the following:  “the election calendar remains unchanged-it is purely a party matter.”   Nevertheless, one must wait until December to see if the elections are actually held.

 Senegal held a highly competitive and hotly debated presidential election in March 2012 when its political leader, President Abdoulaye Wade ran for reelection.  Wade had run for president only after a legal challenge and a court decision found that he could seek reelection thereby failing to retroactively apply constitutional amendments of term limits to Wade.  Yet, after the results of the election indicated his loss President Wade dutifully adhered to Senegalese law and stepped down.  Wade’s actions are significant because he sought legal action to determine his ability to seek reelection and also peacefully conceded defeat.   These nations and their peaceful political transitions and observance of their respective constitutional provisions stands in marked contrast to other African states who are threatened with instability.  

            On August 20, 2012 the Somali government shifted from the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) to a new parliament.  The TFG had worked with elders to nominate over two hundred parliamentary members.  Numerous reports indicate that this selection process was riddled with corruption as elders were minimalized throughout the process and bribed in order to ensure particular individuals were selected for parliament.  Several media articles note that the new parliament is already plagued by illegitimacy as it has been marred with dishonesty and a lack of transparency.  This has led some to question the long term sustainability of the parliament as well as to question whether a fragile stability can be achieved.   In fact, stability in Somalia has been largely absent and the lack of a legitimate government has produced a gap that al’Shabaab has tried to capitalize upon.  Although al’Shabaab is weakened in some regards it is still a threat to the stability of the new Somali government and to the region at large.  Several reports indicate that the terrorist group may attempt to use the new political system to advance its goals.   

            In West Africa, Mali also has been plagued by recent instability as a military coup unseated the long-standing stable and democratic government.  The absence of government and governance permitted Tuareg rebels in the northern part of the nation to gain territorial control which quickly passed to foreign Islamic fighters.  These fighters have solidified their hold in northern region of Mali imposing Shariah law while the Mali military has maintained a grip over the capital.  The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) recently asked for assistance noting that the instability in Mali is a problem that extends beyond the Mali borders.  ECOWAS actions highlight the regional danger that these radical foreign fighters pose for even stable governments.   This is especially significant given the instability that is plaguing northern Nigeria.  

            Achieving political stability in Africa has proven to be challenged as recent events have shown.  Nevertheless, there are states that have created stability through a strong commitment to their respective laws and constitutional provisions.  Whether Ghana and Ethiopia can maintain stability in the aftermath of these political transitions of power still remains to be seen.

           

Sources:

Abdi Ismail Samatar “UN Corrupts Somali Political Transition,” Aljazeera.com, http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/07/201273094746839247.html.

Ayante, Abdi.  “Somalia: Al-Shabaab and Post-Transition Somalia,” http://allafrica.com/stories/201209031458.html.  

Judicial Services of Ghana, 1992 Constitution of Ghana,  http://www.judicial.gov.gh/constitution/chapter/chap_8.htm.

Maasho, Aaron. “Ethiopia – new prime minister will stay in office until 2015.”  Reuters Africa,  http://africajournalismtheworld.com/tag/ethiopian-peoples-revolutionary-democratic-front-eprdf/. 

 

New York Times.  “Mali.”  http://topics.nytimes.com/top/news/international/countriesandterritories/mali/index.html.

Nossiter, Adam.  “John Atta Mills, President of Ghana, dies at 68,” New York Times, July 24, 2012.

“Senegal's President-elect Macky Sall hails 'new era',” BBC News Africa, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17508098.

“Somalia's first parliament since 1991 inaugurated in Mogadishu,” The Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/aug/20/somalia-first-parliament-inaugurated.

“Somalia’s Political Restart,” Aljazeera.com,  http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/insidestory/2012/08/201282115497642471.html.

“Tough challenges for Ethiopia's new leader,” ahramonline, http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/9/51864/World/International/Tough-challenges-for-Ethiopias-new-leader-Hailemar.aspx.

Verhoeven, Harry. “Zenawi: The titan who changed Africa,” Aljazeera.com, http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/08/2012821115259626668.html.