Friday, October 19, 2012

Weak Insitutions and Ethnic Conflicts



            African politics is often marred by corruption, bribery, and violence that can be traced back to early pre and post-colonialism.  That is, often governments and parties are created and organized around the notions of clientelism and ethnic power sharing.  The consequences of these dysfunctional forms of representative democracy have not only meant an existence of poverty, disease, violence, and intimidation of ordinary citizens but are also inextricably linked to insurgencies, terrorist activities, rebellions, and conflict.  These problems pose international consequences and thus are of particular interest as national borders become increasingly porous and violence is more easily transferable.

            African political institutions as well as their political parties were largely assembled quickly and haphazardly.  To be sure, Africa never experienced the long democratic transition experienced by Western Europe.  In fact, Western Europe experienced the slow development of political parties that was based upon established political cleavages and which allowed for parties to develop strong organizational linkages to civil society. 

The result of the African truncated evolution has been the emergence of a weak system with weak institutions and arguably weak leaders.  In an effort to solidify and strengthen their support base, and in the absence of political linkages based upon traditional notions of political cleavages and ideology, many African leaders invoked patronage based systems.  These systems can essentially be characterized as one based upon political favors, governmental appointments, etc. to those individuals that thereafter support the government in return for these continued favors.  The results of this system necessarily suggest that leaders may never have full ideological commitment from their “supporters,” a fact that is readily recognized by leaders.    Research indicates that this sort of system creates a paranoid like phenomenon whereby African leaders are quick to eliminate individuals from government positions that are perceived as potentially dangerous to continued stability of the incumbent government.  In return, leaders engage in “ethnic stacking” or making appointments based largely upon ethnicity.   The result is that whole ethnic groups may be excluded from government positions and arguably from even minimal representation in the government.  If that were the end of the story perhaps a woeful lament of the inadequacies of representative democracy would suffice but unfortunately there are practical consequences to the elimination of whole subsets of society from governmental representation. 

            Research finds that the exclusion of ethnic populations is positively correlated with the emergence of conflict and civil war.  Unsurprisingly, the threat of conflicts and sectarian violence increases if the excluded group is large in membership or if they have engaged in previous conflicts and disputes with the government.  Of particular interest with respect to African states is that low GDP per capita has also been shown to be a significant explanatory factor in accounting for conflicts.  It must be noted that continued conflict hinders development and economic growth thus creating a vicious circle of poverty and conflict.  These results suggest the importance that not only official recognition of ethnic groups has on sustaining peace but also the importance of continued engagement with previously disaffected groups.   

            The violence in Mali provides a current contextual example of some of the risks associated with failing to fully integrate minority groups into governmental representation.  First, Mali is a fairly diverse nation, although not nearly as diverse as many other African states.  Nevertheless, U.S. government reports indicate between five and seven ethnic groups in the nation.  The Tuareg ethnic group accounts for between 5%-10% of the ethnic population.  Economically, Mali is ranked as one of the twenty-five poorest countries in the world.  Although Mali had been lauded as an African example of stable democracy reports indicate that many citizens believed the government was overrun with corruption and inequality.  These conditions seem to set the stage for the conflict.   

The Tuareg group is especially significant given their historical rebellions against the central government as well as their more recent and well-publicized conflict that led to extreme Islamist control of northern Mali.  Despite their recent campaign of violence historical research into the Tuaregs indicates the group has largely perceived the central government as an unavailable and inept instrument to address their regional concerns.  For example, Tuaregs assert that their nomadic lifestyle is in danger and increased NGO presence in the region has harmed them; however, their complaints were seemingly ignored or they were harshly retaliated against.  Nevertheless, despite their violent campaigns the Tuaregs have historically and publicly demanded recognition and negotiations with the central government.  Unfortunately, the security concerns in North Africa are such that the Tuareg rebellion was usurped by radical Islamist groups.  This brief examination of a modern African conflict does not merely indicate the danger of ethnic exclusion from representative democracy but rather also introduces the security concerns that weak governmental institutions create that encourage conflict, retard growth, and contribute to regional instability.

The danger from weak African institutions is receiving increasing attention from the international community as the number and intensity of conflicts escalates.  As calls for international humanitarian and military aid reverberate important contextual issues must be remembered.  Specifically, when addressing these conflicts underlying structural institutional deficiencies must be remembered while also simultaneously avoiding the haphazard importation of western European models of government. 

Sources:

Cederman, Lars-Erik, Andreas Wimmer, and Brian Min, “Why Do Ethnic Groups Rebel?:New Data and Analysis,” World Politics 62, no.1 (January 2010):87-119.

Keenan, Jeremy, “Tuareg Take Up Arms,” Review of African Political Economy 33, no.108, (June 2006):367-368.

Krings, Thomas, “Marginalisation and Revolt among the Tuareg in Mali and Niger,” GeoJournal 36, no. 1 (May 1995): 57-63.

Roessler, Philip, “Enemy Within:  Personal Rule, Coups, and Civil War in Africa,” World Politics 63, no.2 (April 2011): 300-346.   

http://www.jdsurvey.net/afro/AnalizeQuestion.jsp 
http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2828.htm
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ml.html
http://www.cfr.org/north-africa/al-qaeda-islamic-maghreb-aqim/p12717
http://english.al-akhbar.com/node/4772

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