Tuesday, March 20, 2012

War Within Brazil

There is a common perception that there is an undeclared war in Brazil that is taking place between the favelas, military police, paramilitary groups and drug traffickers. The situation has been described in comparison to US troops in Afghanistan and to the Brazilian presence in Haiti.

Rio’s diverse terrain and portions of extreme concentrated poverty have contributed to and reinforced these war-like perceptions. The terrain ranges from mountains to jungles which provide a dangerous patrolling environment much like that in Kabul.

Rio is home to around 1,000 favelas, which are generally built on the mountain sides and home to poor migrant workers. Brazil’s conservative middle class has been characterized as criminalizing the poor, and supporting any and all military operations to invade the favelas. The physical wall that has been built around 13 favelas has further segregated them, and was referred to by one professor as “a fascist fence around the poor.”

The favelas are being increasingly inhabited by military bases. General Enzo Martins Peri, a commander of the Brazilian Army, compared the operational base being set up in the Alemao favela Complex in 2010 to the operations taking place in Haiti. The army, which had already previously been involved in police actions, had the support of the State Civil Police in forming a military command center within the Alemao Complex. Army installations were set up and conducted under the same regulations as those in Haiti, with power that not even the police was given.
Like in Haiti, the troops had the right to use force in order to impose peace, often by entering properties without warrants and shooting to kill. The director of the UN Information Center in Brazil explained, “In Haiti, the military can fight back with gunfire, not only as a form of self defense.” In Haiti, the Brazilian military (as part of the UN Stabilization Mission in Haiti--MINUSTAH) had to clear Haiti’s streets and perform combat engineering, strategies which were originally used in Brazilian favelas.

In November of 2011, special police force and navy commandos invaded Rocinha and Vidigal, two of Rio’s largest favelas. After these security forces invaded the favelas at the crack of dawn, they hoisted the Brazilian flag in them to show that government authority had been restored. One journalist posed the question, “Where have we gone wrong if it is necessary to hoist the Brazilian flag in Brazilian territory, as if this signified the conquest of foreign land?” Military occupations of favelas are treating them as if they are foreign territory.

The media has further reinforced the war with favelas by using war-like language. For example, a hurt man is referred to as “a wounded bandit,” and the people arrested are referred to by their favela nicknames instead of formal names. This language paints a more gang-like picture of all of the favela residents, the majority of whom are not directly involved in the drug trafficking. For example, statistics of the Alemao Complex show that only .05% of the 200,000 inhabitants are actually involved in the trafficking.

SOURCES

Auler, Marcelo, and Tania Monteiro. “Brazil: Army to Be Peacekeepers and Police at Rio De Janeiro.” O Estado De Sao Paulo Digital. Sao Paolo, December 4, 2010.

“Police Wrest Control of Rio’s Largest Favela to Expel Drug Traffickers.” The Daily Star. Beirut, November 14, 2011.

Slater, Russell. “Brazil: Why Raiding Rio’s Favelas Is Not as Good as It Looks.” Brazzil (August 21, 2009).

Toledo, Renato Godoy de, and Claudia Santiago. “Brazil Police Use Press Coverage as Green Light to Kill and Invade Houses in Rio.” Brazzil (November 10, 2009).

Zibechi, Raul. “In Stretch to the Olympics Rio Becomes Lab for Genocide and Social Control.” Brazzil (January 20, 2010).

Sunday, March 11, 2012

Chinese Commentaries on Foreign Affairs (Mar 5- Mar 11)

Chinese Maritime Defense Strategy

March 9, while attending China's Eleventh National People's Congress, the former commander of a naval test base, Major General Cao Dongshen, commented on the issue of China's maritime rights and interests. He believes that china's national sovereignty must be defended at all expenses. With regard to some media's report that the Chinese aircraft carrier Varyag might start its military service this year, Cao said that the carrier is still only used for training and research. He also repeatedly stressed that modern warfare is systematic, where the aircraft carrier is not the determining factor. As for the Chinese navy's ocean escort operations, Cao Dong Shen said that because the situation is not stabilized yet, the convoy will need to continue.

Also responding to the "China Threat Theory" stirred up by China's aircraft carrier, Vice Admiral Wang Dengping recently said in an interview that China will change its defense strategy merely because of the carrier, and it is ungrounded to see China as a threat to others. Regarding the North Sea Fleet's escort mission in the Gulf of Aden and the Somali waters, Wang said that this glorious mission is of important responsibility. Wang also emphasized that the training of Chinese navy is consistent with international law and international convention, and is not targeted at any specific country. Therefore, he argued that the outside world should not make unnecessary speculations or fuss about Chinese navy's training and exercises in relevant waters.

Chinese Military Expenditure

As the fuss about the increased Chinese military spending continues, a commentary came out on Global Times this week. The title of this commentary says that China is not as belligerent as Japan, otherwise Asia would not be peaceful as it is today. According to a report produced by a British think tank, Asia's military expenditure could for the first time surpass that of Europe, and that China's defense budget accounts for 30% of Asia's military spending. The Global Times commentary responds that this report is deliberately misleading. First, there no arms race between Asia and Europe. Second, the percentage of China's military spending in Asia is not a result of an arms race in the region either. Instead, this article argues that, what really matters is the difference between China's military spending and the US's military spending. In 2011, China's military spending is about 1/8 of the U.S. military. It is this big difference that will have the most important impacts on Asia's geopolitical and military situation. The increase in China's military spending does not mean that China is belligerent. Rather, it is an insurance for China's future.

Sino-Russia Alliance?

Some Chinese experts believe that as the US shifts its strategic focus to the Asia-Pacific, it is imperative for China and Russia to reinforce and promote the Sino-Russian strategic partnership. Accordingly, China needs to reformulate its "no-alliance" principle to adjust to the changing global power balance.


Sources:

"少将:瓦良格号航母服役后仍用于训练研究" (Major General: Varyag aircraft carrier is still used for training and research)

"海军中将:中国不会因有航母改变现防御战略" (Vice Admiral: China will not change the current defense strategy because of the carrier)

"中将:中国海军要以实际行动来维护海洋权益" (Vice Admiral: Chinese navy needs to take concrete actions to safeguard maritime rights and interests)

"中国不是日本 若涨军费是好战亚洲岂有今天" (China is not as belligerent as Japan and is not a threat to other Asian states)

"中国不能孤独对抗美国 中俄军事结盟势在必行" (China cannot confront the US alone, the U.S. Sino-Russian military alliance is imperative)

Friday, March 9, 2012

Chinese Commentaries on Foreign Affairs (Feb 27- Mar 4)

South China Sea

Major General Luo Yuan, executive director of the China Military Science Society, believes that unexpected events are likely to outbreak in the South China Sea in 2012. According to him, the US has made up its mind to move its military focus to the Asia-Pacific region to contain China, which reflects the residue of the Cold War thinking. Luo considers the US's move as a potential strategic mistake, because the US picked a wrong rival at a wrong time in the wrong place. By wrong time, he means that peace and development are the themes of this era. By wrong place, he means that while there still is threat to US's metropolitan territory and situation in the Middle East is still unstable, it is not a wise choice to move to the Asia-Pacific. By wrong rival, he means that China is an undefeatable and indomitable opponent. In addition, Luo suggests that China should keep a close eye on Japan, since Japan has gradually got rid of its post-war shackles.

In response to U.S. Pacific Command Commander Robert Willard's remarks that China is the only country claiming sovereignty over the entire South China Sea, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said at a regular press conference on the 29th that China does not claim sovereignty over the entire South China Sea. Instead, Hong stated that the core of the South China sea disputes is about the Nansha Islands and the demarcation of part of the South China Sea waters. According to Hong, China has indisputable sovereignty over the Nansha Islands. Therefore, it is illegal for the Philippines to exploit oil and gas resources around the Nansha Islands with foreign investors.

Diaoyu Islands

In response to Japan's naming of the Diaoyu Islands, China has released standard names and descriptions of the Diaoyu Island and its affiliated isles, according to sources with the State Oceanic Administration. The Diaoyu Island is named as "Diaoyu Island", with its Chinese pronunciation reading "Diao yu Dao". It is described as an island "about 356 kilometers from the city of Wenzhou, 385 kilometers from the city of Fuzhou and 190 kilometers from the city of Keelung." The country has also released names of Diaoyu's 70 affiliated islands, the names in pinyin and description of locations. In the meantime, China demands that Japan immediately cease unilateral survey in disputed waters. Major General Luo Yuan suggests that Coast Guard should be established to cope with the grim situation in the East China Sea and the South China Sea.

Chinese Military Expenditures

Li Zhaoxing, the spokesman for the National People's Congress, announced on Sunday the overall figure for China's 2012 military spending. China's 2012 defense budget is 670.274 billion yuan, with a 11.2 percent increase compared to the number of budget execution of the previous year. Li stresses that China adheres to a defensive national defense policy, and that Chinese military spending is transparent. China's limited military capabilities is geared at safeguarding national sovereignty and security and territorial integrity. China will not pose a threat to other countries. Responding to the China Threat Theory, some Chinese military officials point out that the increase in Chinese defense budget is consistent with China's overall development, and that Chinese military expenditure is much lower than that of some western countries. Specifically, Major General Luo Yuan states that China might build more aircraft carriers in the future if needed.


Sources:

"罗援:2012年南海很可能爆发一些突发事件" (Unexpected events could outbreak in the South China Sea in 2012)

"外交部:中国并未对整个南海提出主权声索" (Chinese Foreign Ministry: China does not claim sovereignty over the entire South China Sea)

"外交部:菲律宾拉外资开发南沙油气是非法的" (Chinese Foreign Ministry: It is illegal for the Philippines to exploit oil and gas resources around the Nansha Islands with foreign investors)

"中方要求日方立即停止在争议海域单方面调查" (China demands that Japan immediately cease unilateral survey in disputed waters)

"抽日本人耳光 我公布钓鱼岛附属岛屿标准名" (Slapping Japan, China released standard names of the Diaoyu Islands)

"少将:须设海岸警备队应对东海南海严峻形势" (Coast Guard should be established to cope with the grim situation in the East China Sea and the South China Sea)

"2012年中国国防费预算6702.74亿 增长11.2%" (China's 2012 defense budget is 670.274 billion yuan)

"李肇星接受英记者采访:涨军费为维护世界和平" (Li Zhaoxing: increased military spending is to safeguard world peace)

"少将谈我未来航母:若有需要多建几艘有可能" (Major General talks about aircraft carrier, might build more if necessary)

Monday, February 27, 2012

Chinese Commentaries on International Affairs (February 20-February 26)

Syria

As Syria was holding its national referendum, one Chinese commentary on the situation in Syria and China's role in the Syrian crisis came out. According to this article, what the West wants in Syria is not democracy but the end of Bashar al-Assad's regime, so that Iran's influence on Syria will be reduced. In other words, the West is trying to build up a new geopolitical layout in the Middle East. Thus, as the author contends, China should, together with Russia, support the Syrian referendum and the reform of Bashar's regime. The author also suggests that China should seriously reconsider its changing role in the international arena, because each card China plays will be carefully examined by the West. China can retreat at any point as the situation in Syria changes, but China needs to be aware of the costs.

However, some other Chinese experts believe that China does not have to follow Russia's position regarding the Syria problem. Zhu Wenhui, an expert and commentator from Hong Kong, pointed out that Russia has more strategic interests in Syria that China does, and that Putin might be using his tough stance on this problem to gain popularity domestically. Therefore, China should deal with this case based on its own interests and considerations instead of blindly following Russia.

Sino-Japanese Relations

Last week, Nagoya Mayor Takashi Kawamura denied the well-documented massacre of Chinese civilians by Japanese troops in 1937, which has provoked great anger and protests from the Chinese public. The city of Nanjing subsequently suspended its sister-city relations with Nagoya. “On the denial of the Nanjing massacre by the mayor of Nagoya, China has already expressed its solemn position and made a solemn complaint to the Japanese side,” foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei told a regular briefing. Qiu Yi, a Taiwanese political commentator, described the denial as "nonsense", and claimed that Chinese people from mainland China and Taiwan should condemn the Japanese mayor's absurd remarks together. An article on the website associated with Global Times cites the example of Willy Brandt, who kneeled before the martyrs monument in Warsaw when he was the Prime Minister of the Federal Republic of Germany in 1970, and argues that Japanese politicians should follow this example.

Chinese Foreign Policy

Wang Zaibang, an expert on international relations, believes that China does not have to deliberately pursue a tough stance when it deals with its foreign affairs as long as it rationally formulates its foreign policies. The rise of China per se is not a threat, but deliberate pursuit of tough foreign policies could be perceived as threatening. Nevertheless, he also points out that rationality does not mean weakness. Another expert, Li Daguang, suggests that China should actively promote diplomacy of alliance. According to him, the capability of forming an alliance with other countries is a marker of a country's soft power, while China's no-alliance policy, formulated in the 1950s-1960s due to the Sino-Soviet split, is not applicable to today's situation.



Sources:

"叙利亚问题已变味卷入其中的中国随时可后撤" (The Syrian situation is changing, China can retreat at any time)

"朱文晖:对叙利亚问题中国无需跟从俄罗斯" (Zhu Wenhui: China needs not to follow Russia on the Syrian issue)

"南京暂停与名古屋官方交往" (Nanjing suspended formal relations with Nagoya)

"邱毅:两岸中国人应同声谴责日市长荒谬言论" (Qiu Yi: Mainland China and Taiwan should join together to condemn the Japanese mayor's absurd remarks)

"专家:日本要让受害国感动有必要学德国下跪" (Expert: Japan should learn from Germany)

"专家:中国外交不必刻意追求强硬 理性足矣" (Expert: China's diplomacy does not have to deliberately pursue toughness, it is enough to be rational)

"李大光:时过境迁 中国应积极推进盟国外交" (Li Daguang: China should actively promote diplomacy of alliance)

Friday, February 24, 2012

Security Forces: What's happening now?

On February 9, 2012 the military police, civil police and firefighters in Rio de Janeiro declared a strike demanding a basic rate salary increase to R$3,500, or just over $2,000 USD. The civil police union ended up postponing the strike in order to stand by their primary commitment; to maintain security. The military police and firefighters continued to strike, however, despite the city-wide Carnaval celebrations that would certainly present security issues. The Secretary for the Civil Defense Department and fire brigade commander, Colonel Sérgio Simões, stated that 14,000 army troops and an additional 300 troops from the National Seucirity Force would be deployed to patrol the state and provide fire services. Recent news reports argue that the Brazilian public’s confidence in the police is greater now more than it ever has been, and that community members are increasingly feeling valued throughout society. This strike and lack of police surveillance make the newfound confidence sound like it might have just been the media’s spin on it (Croix).

Security policy analysts often suggest that Rio’s several police forces reform and unify into one large force. According to one public safety specialist, this is not a feasible option since each force has a specific function. Brazil’s Public Safety Secretary explains: “We inherited [the division between civil, investigative police and military, enforcement police] from the times of the [Portuguese] empire. You can’t decree things. Today, as Secretary, I think we’re still very far from having a police force with the whole cycle, from investigation to patrolling.”

There are around five hundred new police officers entering the force each month. The new officers are being trained under a new mentality, one which aims at de-emphasizing the importance of killing; one where police offers don’t feel naked without a rifle. As the curriculum changes and Rio’s favelas undergo their makeovers, one wonders if now would be the best time to transform the police forces into one, and if so, what this would look like? One thing is clear; in order to be effective, officials will need to maintain a constant community presence that is focused on prevention and respects human rights. The use of highly visible, forceful and ‘military style’ executions are becoming less and less popular (Michaels).

The UPPs (Pacifying Police Divisions) are squadrons of Brazilian officers occupying favelas using community-policing methods. The drug gangs and traffickers, who often have been in control of the favelas for over three decades, certainly feel the pressure on themselves and on their profits. Reflecting on the seriousness of the invasions, Beltrame stated (in somewhat war-like language), "We have taken from these people what was never taken from them before — their territory. They commit their barbarous acts, and they run for their hideouts, protected by weapons of war. It's important to arrest them, but it is more important to occupy their territory. Without seizing territory, there is no advance."

There have been 17 UPPs set up in 68 favelas, and crimes (such as murder and assault) in those communities are down significantly. To understand the implications of the UPPs will take a much deeper analysis, which will be addressed later on with the help of community (favela) level testimonies. However, it is clear that the policies for favela integration and restructuring must be long-term, and that they will require more than just community policing, and will need the support of international organizations and local NGOs.

Downie, Andrew. “Rio Finally Makes Headway Against its Drug Gangs.” Time Magazine. 11/26/2010.

Croiz, Sarah de Sainte. “Police Strike in Rio Begins Today: Daily” Rio Times. 2/10/2012.

Michaels, Julia. “Rio's top cop talks public safety policy, favela pacification program.” Latin America Monitor. 10/20/2011.

Sunday, February 19, 2012

Xi's Trip to the US and Other Commentaries

So far, China's Vice President Xi's US trip plays well on Chinese media. Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi summarizes Xi's visit to the US as a significant contribution to promoting mutual respect and building a win-win Sino-US cooperative partnership. According to Yang, first, Xi's trip has deepened important concensus on advancing the Sino-US partnership. Second, it helps to expand pragmatic mutually beneficial cooperations between the two sides in the economic realm. Third, Xi's visit has deepened the friendship between Chinese and American people as well as promoted regional cooperation. Fourth, it enhances the Sino-US communication on international affairs.

One point brought up by Xi that has been highlighted by Chinese media is that China hopes that the US respect China's core interests, including China's territorial integrity and sovereignty. Xi said that the true measurement of friendship is action instead of rhetoric and that China expects the US to support the "one-China" policy and act against the Taiwan and Tibet separatist movements. Speaking of human rights issues, Xi pointed out that it is natural that China and the US have different views on this issue, considering the two countries' different histories and cultures. But the two sides can continue communication to further improve the human rights conditions in both countries.

Xi also pointed out that the US needs to realize its own responsibility for the trade imbalance between China and the US. During the visit, Xi also met with U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Martin Dempsey, when Xi claimed that Sino-US military relations need to subordinate to broader cooperative Sino-US relations.

What has especially catched people's eyes in Xi's visit is its civil part. Some chinese commentators believe that Xi is attempting to build up favorable impressions on China among American people. Some experts call this kind of diplomacy "three-dimensional diplomacy", and claim that it helps to establish China's image as a "great nation".

A Chinese military scholar disputed a global research group's report on China's defense budget growth, saying the motivation of the report was to play up China's military threat. The IHS Jane's report said China's military budget will double by 2015, making it more than the rest of the Asia Pacific region's combined. Professor Ma Gang with the People's Liberation Army (PLA) National Defense University said the IHS Jane's report was sensational and lacked a rational and factual basis. "The facts have proved that China's military budget increase has gone up and down over the past years and will not always keep growing fast," Ma said.

Refuting one of last week's commentaries which supported the idea of G2, a new article this week claims that G2 is a very dangerous proposal. Jin Canrong, a scholar on international relations, believes that the objective of the "responsible China" theory, as opposed to the "China threat" theory, is to put China into the American mold and encourage China to cooperate with the US to maintain the current unipolar world order. He considers this theory both an opportunity and a challenge for China, because the proper limits for behaving like a "great nation" are very sensitive.


Sources:

"杨洁篪称习近平访美推进双方合作伙伴关系建设" (Yang Jiechi: Vice President Xi's US trip contributes to cooperative partnership)

"习近平:望美反对'台独''藏独'付之行动" (Xi Jinping: China expects US to act against Taiwan and Tibet separatist movements)

"习近平寄望美国:衡量朋友的标准是行动非语言" (Xi Jinping: the measurement of friendship is action instead of rhetoric)

"习近平:中美两军关系需服从于中美合作大局" (xi Jinping: Sino-US military relations need to subordinate to broader cooperative Sino-US relations)

"独家点评:习近平访美民间行程直指人心" (Arrangements of Xi's US trip aim at winning favorable impressions)

"吴旭:习近平访美“立体外交”树立大国形象" (Xi's visit to the US to establish a "great nation" image through three-dimensional diplomacy)

"西方机构妄测中国军费五年倍增意在渲染威胁" (Western research agency intends to play up China's military threat)

"G2中美共治论非常危险 要吸取德日崛起教训" (G2 is a very dangerous idea, China needs to learn the lessons from the rise of Germany and Japan)

Monday, February 13, 2012

Chinese Commentaries on International Affairs (February 6-February 12)

Sino-US Relations

In this week, four articles on Chinese state and regional media, including Global Times, Renmin Wang, Xinhua Wang, and Guangzhou Daily, presented two different Chinese views on Sino-US Relations and US's new military strategy.

One article holds that China might need to reconsider the idea of G2 (Group of Two), a proposed informal special relationship between the United States and China. The article indicates that a Sino-US split might result in disasterous global economic situation and might pose threats to global peace, considering China and US are the main motors of the world economy and global system. It contends that it will be impossible to resolve any of the global problems if the conflictive factors in Sino-US relations outweigns the cooperative ones. Therefore, the author suggests that both the Chinese and American academia should rethink about the proposal of G2.

Meanwhile, with regard to Vice President Xi Jinping's upcoming visit to the US, Chinese Foreign Ministry claims that this visit will be an important beginning of the communications between Sino-US high-level officials, preceding a series of other conferences and negotiations. The Foreign Ministry believes that such mechanism plays a positive role in the development of Sino-US relations. In particular, the Vice Chinese Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai emphasizes China and the US's shared responsibility of providing common goods for the Asia-Pacific region, as well as promoting the development and ensuring the stability of the region. This article maintains that the future of Sino-US relations is not a zero-sum game, and that it is entirely possible to reach a win-win situation.

By contrast, the other two articles are using a much less friendly tone. One article accuses the US of using its military exercises in the Asia-Pacific region to add pressure on other countries in the region, so that "Japanese people, Korean people, and people in other countries would think that when a war breaks out, only the US soldiers will be able to protect them." The article believes that it is through this kind of psychological warfare the US will be better capable of maintaining its status of global hegemon. It also suggests that the Cold War thinking is still a valuable asset for the US.

The last article commented on the new US military strategy. According to this article, the new US military strategy shows, on the one hand, that US had to adjust their military strategy due to its declining national strength in recent years, and on the other hand, that US is unwilling to give up its obstinate pursuit of hegemonism. Therefore, the article contends, the US is attempting to pull it self of the Middle East, while at the same time turning to targeting at its "potential rivals", which in fact advocate for peaceful development. Thus, the article comes to the conclusion that US's move in the Asia-Pacific region is bluster outwardly, fluster inwardly.

Iranian Crisis

In response to the West's criticism on China's veto on the UN Syria resolution, Vice Chinese Foreign Minister claims that China uses the veto right very cautiously and responsibly. He points out that the frequency that China uses its veto right is much lower than most of other states, but China will not hesitate to use it when necessary. According to him, China's vote will only be dependent on China's major principles and interests, not influenced by other states' choice. He also states that China has always believed that it is unlegitimate to use force in international affairs, or to interfere other states' domestic politics. He hopes that the international society will be able to cooperate on the Syria issue, maintaining peace and stability in the region. According to a Chinese expert, the US is not determined to launch a war against Iran, neither is the US capable of doing so. The expert believes that the Obama administration's move on the Iranian crisis is primarily about raising oil prices and controlling oil resources rather than about taking military actions.

The Tibet Issue

Recently, "the Tibet problem", an expression that has long ago been abandoned by official Chinese media, frequently appears on foreign media. One article on Global Times points out that the so-called "Tibet problem" actually refers to not only the Tibet Autonomous Region, but also parts of Sichuan, Qinghan, Gansu and Yunnan provinces, which in total constitutes one fourth of China's territory. The author compares the "Tibet problem" with the Kosovo, Afganistan and Syria issues, suggesting that there is a risk that it can be utilized by the US, so that the US will use force against China in the name of the UN. To avoid such a situation, the author suggests that Chinese scholars should avoid using the phrase "Tibet problem". On the other hand, China should firmly deny the existence of the "Tibet problem" when negotiating and communicating with foreign representatives.


Sources:

"专家:需再思G2 未来中美或可联合共撑大局" (Expert: China needs to reconsider G2, China and the US might be able to work together to maintain a good global order)

"外交部:中美有共同责任为亚太提供公共产品" (Foreign Ministry: China and the United States have a common responsibility of providing public goods for the Asia-Pacific)

"美军亚太军演磨刀霍霍 司马昭之心世人皆知" (The US ambition is completely revealed by its Asia-Pacific military exercises)

"评美新军事战略:囊中羞涩挖肉补疮还想逞能" (Commenting on the new U.S. military strategy: bluster outwardly,fluster inwardly)

"外交部副部长谈动用否决权:该出手时定出手" (Vice Foreign Minister on veto right: use it when necessary)

"专家:美对伊开战决心未下也无发动战争条件" (Expert: US is not determined to launch a war against Iran, neither is it capable of doing so)

"若西藏问题成立殃及我1/4领土 美或乘机开战" (The Tibet problem concerns one fourth of China's territory, US might take advantage of it)