The Afterglow is Gone

Protestors clash with police in front of the Presidential Palace (Source: AP)

“I voted for Morsi. I thought the Brotherhood, more than any group, would have understood the concept of injustice and tried to fix it, but they failed.”
-- Egyptian protestor Ahmed Metwalli speaking from Tahrir Square on February 2, 2013 (Source: Dawn.com)

          Small events can spark major revolutions. Just as the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand initiated a chain of incidents that would result in the First World War, an act of self-immolation in 2010 in protest against a corrupt Tunisian government would change the geo-political landscape of the Middle East and North Africa. The Arab Spring was a tsunami of revolutionary fervor crested by a decentralized youthful protest movement that spread quickly from Tunisia to Egypt, Libya and other countries. The toppling of long standing dictators and their corrupt regimes generated social and political euphoria throughout the Middle East. Many countries held their first free democratic elections, bringing long suppressed political groups to center stage. In Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood seized the reigns of power winning a number of referendums and elections that ultimately culminated in 2012 with the election of President Mohammed Morsi, a Muslim Brotherhood backed candidate. Across much of the Arab World, widespread feelings of jubilation and hope for a brighter, more free and more prosperous future reigned.

           Over two years on from the onset of the Arab Spring, the optimistic views held by many are now wearing thin, and the shadow of winter and reality seems to have eclipsed the euphoria once felt by many. Tunisia’s Islamist government has “acknowledged the prospect of civil war…” breaking out between Islamists and modernists (See “Tunisia’s Islamist government…”). Chaos reigns in Libya. Infighting within the Libyan General National Congress and continued clashes between rival militias and Islamist groups threaten “another revolution” (See Gumuchian,Marie-Louise) and a growing potential breeding ground for Islamic Jihadi militants (See Michael, Maggie). An Islamist backlash from the current conflict in Mali threatens the already fragile Libyan government due to weapons and fighters funneled through Libya to Mali, Syria and other countries. Yemen is embroiled in a struggle against armed militant groups, is on the verge of a food crisis and the government exerts little control outside the capital of Sanaa and a few other major cities (See Al Zuhayyan, Abdulrahman). The Syrian "revolution" has become more civil war than revolution, and is widely seen as a proxy war between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran (See “Foreign Policy: Proxy…”).

           Ironically, the most stable countries within the region seem to have been ruthless dictatorships that acted decisively in the face of the Arab Spring to crush dissent (Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Algeria), to bribe citizens with money, free food, loan interest forgiveness and other freebies to stop pro-democracy activism (Kuwait, United Arab Emirates), to implement immediate “reforms” (the permanence of which remains in question) and make accommodations with other existing political parties in an effort to cling to power (Morocco, Jordan).

           In Egypt, the people are marking the second anniversary of the Egyptian revolution with widespread protests. There is an increasing sentiment of discontent with the government, led by President Morsi and a parliament dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood. Political opposition to the Muslim Brother's persistent efforts to “Islamacize” Egypt has revealed an unmistakable authoritarian streak in the new Islamist regime. Mubarak-like dictates cementing Morsi’s word as the final authority in government, a perceived Brotherhoodization of the state and mass media, a worsening economy, along with little real positive change in day-to- day life has left many previously hopeful Egyptians jaded and disillusioned (See previous blog post “Meet the New Boss…”). Amid the planting of 10,000 trees for the Muslim Brotherhood social welfare campaign “Together We Build Egypt”-- Egyptian internal strife reached a head last week as more than 60 people were killed in protests in the coastal city of Port Said and hundreds injured in other anti state/anniversary marches in 12 other governorates. Martial law and a curfew was declared in 3 governorates by President Morsi; these dictates were openly defied by protestors.

          The Muslim Brotherhood now faces what may prove to be insurmountable challenges. There is an essential contradiction that is inherent in the fundamental nature and goals of the Muslim Brotherhood itself. Although its rise to power was made possible by democratic elections, , Muslim Brotherhood ideology clearly tends toward an authoritarian religious state. Islamist authoritarianism coupled with the failure to restore a healthy economy, continuing social justice issues, and rampant corruption is eroding the Muslim Brotherhood's popularity, and is calling its very legitimacy into question. The narrative of the Muslim Brotherhood during the revolution was the promise of unity, honesty, transparency and reform, a people’s revolution rather than an Islamic one (See “Ikhwanweb: Egypt’s Revolution"). Immediately after President Morsi’s election, he sought to allay the fears of an impending Islamic State in the vein of Saudi Arabia. He espoused a narrative of moderation, an environment of inclusiveness, religious tolerance and democratic plurality. These promises have not translated into action and once again Egyptians are taking matters in their own hands.

           In response to the President’s dictatorial constitutional edicts of 22 November 2012 (See previous blog post “Meet the New Boss…”) the National Salvation Front was formed. Led by Nobel laureate Mohammed El Baradei, and former presidential candidates Amr Moussa and Hamdeen Sabahi, the National Salvation Front has framed themselves as the de-facto opposition umbrella group to President Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood. Espousing a position of non-violent opposition, they have created a coalition that was expected to run for seats in the parliamentary elections set for April. In the wake of violent protests seen in the last few weeks, the National Salvation Front has moved towards a more assertive stance calling for President Morsi to step down from power (See “Egypt’s Opposition Backs Morsi Exit Call”). Though the National Salvation Front has presented an increasingly hardliner approach, to some protestors these demands are not enough.

From L to R: Hamdeen Sabahi, Mohammed El Baradei and Amr Moussa the leaders of the National Salvation Front (Source: Ahram Online)

          Revolutions are often bloody and chaotic. They also often produce unintended side effects. One side effect of the Arab Spring has been a "great awakening" of the ordinary people of the Middle East, the so-called "Arab Street". Throughout the Middle East there is now a heightened political consciousness where people are aware of the possibility of change and are more ready to confront government authoritarianism in both peaceful and violent protest. In other words, the threat of an angered Arab Street rising up against Morsi in a “althowra athaneeya” (The Second Revolution) in Egypt is a real threat to the Muslim Brotherhood and President Morsi’s regime. The popular social networking site Facebook hosts the “althowra athaneeya almisreah” (See "The Second Egyptian Revolution") page that comments daily on the developments ongoing in Egypt and seeks to bring together Egyptians, much as Facebook and Twitter allowed the Arab Street to coalesce and act during the first Egyptian Revolution against Hosni Mubarak’s regime.

"The Second Egyptian Revolution" page keeps daily tabs on events and seeks to bring Egyptians together (Source: Facebook)

Facebook comment from "The Second Egyptian Revolution" page capturing the frustration with the current government, making comparisons between President Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood with the former regime (Source: Facebook)

          The unforeseen appearance of an “Egyptian Black Bloc” among protestors after incidents of police brutality against demonstrators in December of 2012 further complicates the tenuous political situation within the country and adds another unpredictable element to an already potentially explosive mix. The “Black Bloc” is the general name for anonymous individuals gathering to protest against corruption and tyranny. Originally used as a tactic in 1977 demonstrations against the Brokdorf Nuclear Power Plant in Germany, the tactic of anonymous black-dressed individuals protesting has since spread throughout the world (See “Black Bloc") and similar activism took place during the first Egyptian Revolution with protestors appropriating the Guy Fawkes mask previously used by the activist group “Anonymous”. The Egyptian Black Bloc has been framed by President Morsi as a militia manipulated by malign outside forces, by the Muslim Brotherhood as “thugs” inciting violence and turmoil within the country (See Michael, Maggie, “Masked…”) and being tacitly supported by the opposition. The Egyptian Black Bloc appears to cast themselves as “defenders of the protestors” and an anti-Morsi/Muslim Brotherhood element that is willing to act when other opposition groups do not. Presumably, the Egyptian Black Bloc sees the actions of groups like the National Salvation Front and other opposition as ineffectual given the state of failed reforms while liberal opposition groups view the Egyptian Black Bloc as unneeded incitement towards more violence and instability. Saad Zhagloul, a renowned Egyptian revolutionary and statesman in the 1920s is quoted as saying, “The Egyptian voices will be heard, and if not heard, it will be only because the blood already shed has not been enough…” It seems that Egyptians are willing to return to the fight and reclaim what is now seen by many as a stolen revolution (See Zaheer, Salma).

Black Bloc in Tahrir during recent protests against the Muslim Brotherhood and President Morsi (Source: Reuters)

          Plato observed that "extreme liberty" (e.g, protest and revolution) naturally leads to tyranny. The reflexive response of a regime facing the challenge of street demonstrations and violent opposition to its authority is to impose ever-harsher measures in the name of order and stability. Seemingly on cue, Egypt’s Shura Council (the upper house of the Parliament) is set to discuss a draft anti-protest/anti thuggery law that would “grant police a free hand to disrupt and disperse street protests” and grant the interior ministry the right to forbid demonstrations, public gatherings, and meetings at their discretion (See Essam El-Din, Gamal). Given the already brutal tendencies demonstrated by the Egyptian Police when “fettered” by law in the past weeks, including the suspected torturing to death of one protestor (See Kingsley, Patrick), one can only imagine the police methods of quelling civil unrest when given free reign to do as they may by a harried regime and the unintended consequences of such actions; small events can spark major revolutions.

 

According to the Egyptian Interior Ministry "police forces have not been able to fight violent street protests in recent days" (Source: Text Al-Ahram/Video Al-Haya News via Youtube)

          This may be the pivotal moment where the fate of the Egyptian Revolution is decided. President Morsi and Egypt are at a crossroads. One path leads to neoliberal democracy. The other descends to chaos, strife and a potential bloody second Egyptian Revolution. It seems that in the short term President Morsi is likely to attempt the tactics used by other authoritarian regimes to crush dissent but in the long term will have to compromise with the opposition if he and the Muslim Brotherhood intends to stay in power--- and are allowed to remain in power.

In a revolution, as in a novel, the most difficult part to invent is the end.

-- Alexis de Tocqueville

  
Sources:

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